New Diversion Data Publication – which children are we missing?  

New data on diversionary outcomes with youth justice service (YJS) involvement has been published by the Youth Justice Board – the first time this specific data has been made available. It’s a welcome step, and one YEF called for in our Arrested Children System Guidance back in 2023. 

The figures show younger children (aged 10–14) were far more likely to receive a diversionary outcome than a caution or court sentence (66% vs 34%); this is really encouraging given evidence rates informal pre-court diversion as having a high impact on reducing reoffending and this means many children are not being unnecessarily criminalised.  

This new data also enables more informed debates on diversion, whether it is offered equitably, and what the funding system should look like.  

This is important progress, however many of the patterns in the publication are very familiar.

Geographical variation and persistent racial disproportionality  

The publication states: 

• Younger children (10–14) and girls are more likely to receive diversion, while older children (15–17) and boys are more likely to receive a formal caution or court outcome.  
• Nearly half (43%) of youth justice service outcomes were resolved without youth cautions or court involvement, reflecting a continued shift towards early, strengths-based support.  

However, more worryingly identifies: 

• Significant geographical variation highlights geographical disparity, with 63% diversion with YJS involvement in Wales compared to 17% in London.  
• Black children significantly less likely to receive diversion than White children. 

This latter finding echoes what we found our Secondary Data Analysis on diversions from the criminal justice system in London: ‘Black CYP are diverted less often, even when controlling for the seriousness of offending’  

And, the joint inspection published in October 2025 published last year found a postcode lottery in decision-making and outcomes for children. Inspectors found that children struggled to access mental health support and education, that interventions often ended too early, and — critically — that a significant number of children, including those involved in serious offences, were dealt with by police alone without youth justice service involvement. 

This new diversion publication only reports on diversionary outcomes with YJS involvement, and thus does not answer what is currently happening for other children diverted without YJS input or where no further action is taken by the Police.  

The children the system doesn’t properly see 

Before we get to systems and frameworks, it’s worth sitting with what variation actually means for children. 

In a recent episode of YEF’s SAFE Podcast, a young man speaks anonymously about being drawn into county lines exploitation from the age of 12. He describes missed opportunities — moments when someone could have seen what was happening to him and didn’t. His vulnerability went unrecognised until he was facing a custodial sentence as an adult. 

He was twelve when this started.  

That story isn’t an outlier, the 2024–25 statistics give us a glimpse of this. Of children cautioned or sentenced for the most serious offences, 49% had no previous caution or sentence.  

A Home Office analysis published in 2025 found that the fall in charge volumes over the past decade is significantly linked to police workforce instability — less experienced officers and higher turnover are associated with fewer charges for victim-based offences, including violence.  

It raises an uncomfortable question: are some of the children no longer appearing in the youth justice statistics (including this new publication) being supported through non-YJS delivered diversion, or are they not being supported and potentially becoming involved in more serious crime? 

We know from our Children, violence and vulnerability (CVV) report – a survey of nearly 11,000 teenage children aged 13-17 in England and Wales about their experiences of violence – that: Less than half the teens perpetrating serious violence received support to prevent it from happening again. 

The questions we should be asking at a partnership level are why are the numbers falling, and what does that mean? 

The reduction in children entering the formal justice system is the result of genuine improvements in diversion and prevention. But this might not be the only thing it reflects. 

Having previously been a Youth Justice Head of Service, led on peer reviews of services, and having the privilege of continuing to support a breadth of YJSs through my work in YEF and wider work, what I think we’re not yet doing consistently, at a partnership level, is asking the harder questions:  

• What is the police No Further Action (NFA) rate in your area for children involved in serious violence?  
• What happens to those children after that outcome? Who is tracking them?  
• What does the level of serious violence locally tell us about unmet needs that the youth justice system is not reaching? 

Individual youth justice services are, in many cases, doing excellent work with the children they see. The question this data asks — quietly but persistently — is what’s happening to the children they don’t. 

What does this mean for YEF and next steps? 

1. Supporting effective diversion 

Given the scale of geographical variation, YEF will look to support areas where diversion rates appear particularly low, helping partnerships understand local barriers and strengthen access to effective diversion where it is needed most. 

The statistics for London show that court outcomes make up the vast majority of YJS intervention for children and that YJS delivered diversion for 10–14-year-olds is exceptionally low, counter to the national trends.  

The evidence suggests that informal diversion can be especially valuable for younger children, so there is a clear opportunity to work with local partnerships to develop approaches that are both evidence-informed and responsive to local context. 

2. Understanding the gap 

To better understand what is happening for children suspected of offences but who do not receive YJS input, we’ve commissioned research on youth justice responses to serious violence, weapons offences and violence against women and girls (VAWG).  

This research will examine what happens to children suspected of/arrested for high-harm offences — and, just as importantly, what may not happen for those children who never come into contact with the YJS. 

Early learning from this work will help us understand whether children suspected of serious or high-harm offences are being offered timely support, whether opportunities for intervention are being missed, and how local systems can respond more consistently. 

If you would like to get in touch with the team to find out how the YEF can support your effective diversion in your area, please email change.yef@youthendowmentfund.org.uk