An examination of the association between school absence, exclusion and violent crime

Why we funded this 

The existing evidence suggests being in education can reduce the risk that a child will be involved in crime and violence, with several studies pointing to an association between persistent absence from education, school exclusions and offending. For example, analysis by the Department for Education and Ministry of Justice (2023) used linked education and criminal justice records to test the relationship between school absence, exclusions and later involvement in violent offending.

They found those permanently excluded are between one and two times more likely to be cautioned or sentenced for a serious violent offence, compared to those that aren’t excluded. Despite this, there are limits in the existing research. Studies such as those by the DfE-MoJ that exclusively rely on administrative data, cannot fully control for the range of individual, family, interpersonal and community-level drivers that may also explain the observed correlation between absence from education and higher incidence of offending.  

What are the main research questions 

The aim of this research is to examine the association between school absence, suspensions and exclusions, and subsequent offending or violent behaviour – both police recorded and self-reported.  

The main questions this project sets out to answer, are: 

• What is the association between persistent school absence and both self-reported violent behaviour and official sanctions for any offence, including serious violent offences? 

• What is the association between school suspension/exclusion and both self-reported violent behaviour and official sanctions, including any offences and serious violent offences? 

What the analysis involves 

The main dataset used is the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), linked with data from the National Pupil Database and Avon & Somerset Police records. ALSPAC is a cohort study that recruited over 14,000 pregnant women in and around Bristol, between 1991 and 1992. These women and their children have subsequently between tracked overtime. Data from the ASLPAC study has also been linked to education (national pupil database) and local police data. This research employs a logistic regression design, in order to test the relationship between involvement in self-report violent behaviour, police recorded crime and violence, and absence and exclusions from school, controlling for a range of individual, family and school level factors captured in the ALSPAC data. 

Please refer to the analytical protocol for more details. 

Key findings 

This project is still ongoing. Please return for future updates.