Focused Deterrence
A violence reduction approach that uses deterrence messaging and enforcement, desistance support and community influence.
Evaluation type
Implementation and Process evaluation
Related Project
West Midlands VRUOrganisation name
West Midlands VRUFunding round
Agency Collaboration: Focused deterrenceFunding
£1,945,000Regions
West Midlands, West MidlandsActivity Type
Focused deterrence
Setting
Community
Evaluator
University of Hull
What does this project involve?
Focused Deterrence (FD) is a violence reduction approach that uses deterrence messaging and enforcement, desistance support and community influence.
Developed in Boston, USA, in the 1990s, FD targets those who have been involved in group-related violence and provides an initial communication to them that the police are aware of their behaviour and continuation of it will result in swift and severe consequences. Alongside this deterrence message, individuals are offered an array of services (such as mental health, housing, education or employment support). FD also aims to utilise community groups and leaders to reinforce anti-violence messaging, showcase their support for the programme and legitimise delivery.
In this project, FD was implemented across five sites in England (Leicester, Manchester, Nottingham, Coventry and Wolverhampton).
Why did YEF fund this project?
As explained by the YEF Toolkit, Focused Deterrence is associated with a high estimated impact on violent crime, and we have high confidence in this estimate of impact. However, most of the research that underpins this estimate was conducted in the US, and we lack robust estimates of impact in the UK.
YEF and the Home Office have, therefore, funded a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of FD across five sites in England. This early implementation report describes the programme design, preparation, randomisation and initial six months of delivery of this trial, covering the first 21 months of a 45 month project. It aimed to explore the rationale for FD, the success of early implementation, characteristics of the target cohort and intervention, and trial design features (such as potential outcomes, analytical methods, and sample size). The early implementation report also examined whether FD can be delivered consistently, the risks and limitations an RCT may face, and the perceptions of participants and delivery teams of FD.
The evaluation established a two-armed RCT, involving 1,670 children and adults. 834 were randomised to receive FD, and 836 were randomised into the control group and received only business as usual. More participants will be recruited following this early implementation stage. Seven different FD interventions, with common elements, were delivered to participants across the five sites. 51.6% of the intervention group were recorded as White; 28.6% were Black; 9.8% had Mixed ethnicity; 8.8% were Asian and 1.2% had another ethnicity.
An implementation and process evaluation was also undertaken, including interviews with stakeholders, the FD programme team, and programme participants, alongside the collection of programme documentation and delivery data. The evaluation began in April 2022, and the early implementation phase ended in December 2023. Randomisation and delivery are scheduled to continue until Autumn and Winter 2025, respectively.
Key conclusions
| Testing the efficacy of focused deterrence in the UK is important as there has been rapid uptake despite a limited evidence base for this context. This is especially important for the five cities in the trial; all have faced high rates of violence in recent years, while BAU support services from the statutory and voluntary sectors have been insufficiently resourced to prevent violence. |
| All five sites were successful in designing interventions that meet the criteria of a focused deterrence intervention targeting violence. Implementation has been moderately successful, although there were some significant fidelity issues, particularly relating to the combined delivery of deterrence messaging with a support offer. This has improved over the early implementation period but will require monitoring. |
| Police-recorded violence against the person, time-to-offence and frequency of offending in a group are appropriate outcomes for this trial. Randomisation was successful, and full trial implementation is underway. An estimated sample size of 2,625 is required for a well-powered trial. |
| Programme participants who engaged with the support offer and were interviewed had positive perceptions of the programme. However, few were able to articulate the goals of the programme, and almost none mentioned any threat of consequences for continued violence. |
| Focused deterrence can be evaluated in a well-powered RCT. However, several risks need to be addressed to ensure a high-quality evaluation, including ensuring a large enough sample size, increasing the speed at which young people are engaged in the intervention after randomisation and strengthening the deterrence element. |
What will YEF do next?
YEF will continue funding the RCT until its conclusion and final report in 2028.