Research organisation
University of Manchester, University College London, College of Policing
Research team
Dr Thiago Oliveira (University of Manchester), Dr Arabella Kyprianides (University College London), Professor Ben Bradford (University College London), Dr Paul Quinton (College of Policing), Dr Amal Ali (University of Manchester)
Project start date
01/09/2025
Funding
£196,505
Primary dataset(s) used
Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) linked to geocoded stop and search data from police.uk.
Status
Ongoing
Sectors
Policing
Why we funded this
Stop and search powers allow the police to search people who they suspect to be in possession of unlawful items, including knives. Following an encounter, police officers can detain people who have committed offences, thereby preventing further offending. Observing or hearing about stops can also deter potential crime and promote feelings of safety.
However, the widespread use of stop and search can have social costs and unintended consequences. Few studies have looked at whether young people repeatedly stopped by police or who reside in neighbourhoods where stop and search practice concentrates, are affected in terms of their mental health and involvement in crime later in life.
This study aims to fill this gap, using modern causal inference methods for time-varying exposures on rich longitudinal data, in combination with qualitative insights from interviewing young people with lived experience, towards generating nuanced, actionable evidence to inform policing policy and youth wellbeing interventions in England and Wales.
What are the main research questions
The main aim of this research is to examine the short- and long-term effects of cumulative neighbourhood exposure to, and personal experiences of, police stops during adolescence on young people’s mental health and involvement in crime.
As secondary research questions, this project will examine whether any effects observed are different across ethnic groups and generations, and whether mental health harms mediate the relationship between exposure to stop and search and later involvement in crime.
What the analysis involves
This project will link the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), a study that has followed children born in the UK in 2000-2002, to geocoded stop and search data from all police forces in England and Wales from police.uk open data portal. This project will also draw on the 1970 British Cohort Study, as well as Census, Index of Multiple Deprivation, Small Area Mental Health Index and police-recorded crime data.
The effects of exposure to stop and search will be estimated using marginal structural models with residual balancing, which can account for the dynamic relationship between levels of stop and search and crime in the neighbourhood.
For the secondary research questions, this project will employ longitudinal mediation and trajectory models, as well as qualitative data from interviews with young people aged 18-24 who experienced stop and search at ages 10-17.
