Research organisation
University of Greenwich, University of Rochester
Research team
Dr Sajid Humayun. Professor Tom O’Connor. Professor Stephen Scott. Ms Jackie Briskman.
Project start date
02/06/2025
Funding
£127,260
Primary dataset(s) used
VTST study – RCT of Incredible Years in clinic referred sample. SPOKES – RCT of Incredible Years in community sample screened for elevated conduct problems. SPACE – adolescent follow-up of these two RCTs.
Status
Ongoing
Why we funded this
Preventing young people from becoming involved in violence is a national priority. Despite decades of research, important questions remain about why some children go on to engage in offending and violence. Much of the existing evidence is based on lower-risk populations, is affected by the loss of higher-risk families over time, andrelies on observational studies that cannot easily establish cause and effect.
This project addresses these limitations by following children over many years, examining the long-term effects of early parenting interventions, and focusing on children at elevated risk of behavioural problems and future offending. By combining longitudinal data with evidence from intervention studies, it will provide new insights into the pathways leading to adolescent violence and the potential of early intervention to prevent it.
What are the main research questions
The primary questions this research seeks to address includes:
- What is the long-term impact of the Incredible Years parenting intervention on involvement in violent and delinquent behaviour more than ten years after initial exposure?
- Do some children benefit more than others from the intervention, and to what extent can any differences in outcomes by ethnicity be explained by observable factors?
- Among children who received the intervention, do early extra-familial risk factors predict different patterns of offending and violent behaviour during adolescence?
What the analysis involves
The combined dataset comprises two study samples:
- High-risk sample: 110 children aged 3–7 years who completed the trial and were identified as exhibiting severe antisocial behaviour. Of these, 93 were successfully followed up between the ages of 9 and 17.
- Moderate-risk sample: 109 children identified through schools as having elevated levels of conduct problems. Of these, 90 were successfully followed up between the ages of 9 and 13.
The primary outcomes of interest are adolescent delinquency and violence. The project will examine the long-term effects of early parenting interventions on the frequency and diversity of offending, as well as on specific forms of delinquent behaviour. It will also investigate whether intervention effects vary according to individual child characteristics and broader contextual factors.
In addition, the study will explore potential mediating mechanisms through which the intervention may influence later outcomes. These include parental criticism and hostility, low self-esteem, poor concentration and attention, and academic underachievement.
